Model error in weather and climate forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
We review various interpretations of the phrase “model error”, choosing to focus here on how to quantify and minimise the cumulative effect of model “imperfections” that either have not been eliminated because of incomplete observations/understanding or cannot be eliminated because they are intrinsic to the model’s structure. We will not provide a recipe for eliminating these imperfections, but rather some ideas on how to live with them because, no matter how clever model-developers, or fast super-computers, become, these imperfections will always be with us and represent the hardest source of uncertainty to quantify in a weather or climate forecast.
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